January 20, 2026
Laws, legislations, tariffs and rules
After several years of global disruption and recalibration, global logistics is entering 2026 with a cautious sense of stability. Supply chain risk remains a defining feature of freight planning, shaped by geopolitics, climate pressures, regulatory change and the growing interconnectedness of global markets.
What’s different now is not just the number of risks, but how fast they move, and how easily disruption in one area can ripple across an entire system. For logistics leaders, managing global supply chain risk in 2026 is no longer about reacting to events. It’s about anticipating them, building flexibility into networks, and making smarter decisions under uncertainty.
Geopolitical and Trade Drivers
The global shipping and air freight environment is expected to continue its gradual return to relative stability in 2026. Capacity has largely caught up with post-pandemic demand, congestion has eased in many trade corridors, and pricing volatility has softened compared to recent times.
However, this surface-level calm masks persistent supply chain disruption risks driven by geopolitics, trade policy shifts and structural imbalances between supply and demand.
Ocean Freight
Ocean freight remains the backbone of global commerce, but it continues to operate under complex and fragile conditions:
- Ongoing diversions away from the Suez Canal, combined with congestion at major Asian and European ports, are tightening effective capacity in the short term.
- Longer voyage times and reduced operational efficiency create ripple effects that will extend well into 2026.
- If shipping routes fully normalise and Suez Canal transit times return to historical levels, the market may quickly swing back into oversupply, putting downward pressure on rates but increasing financial strain on carriers.
- At the same time, shipping lines are actively adjusting capacity deployment in response to evolving global trade policies and tariff regimes, directly affecting market balance.
For shippers, even when the market appears calmer, global supply chain disruption remains a real possibility. Routing flexibility, diversified carrier strategies and agile procurement will be essential to staying ahead of sudden shifts.
Air Freight
Air freight continues to be powered by cross-border e-commerce, with particularly strong growth in markets outside the US. But 2026 brings important changes that freight planners need to watch closely:
- The abolition of low-value goods tax exemptions in many countries is reshaping major trade lanes.
- Airlines are adjusting capacity and pricing models in response to regulatory and customs changes.
- These shifts are pushing retailers toward nearshoring, inventory consolidation and alternative fulfilment models.
In this environment, the ability to switch seamlessly between air, ocean, rail and road is becoming a genuine competitive advantage, not just a contingency plan.
Tariffs and Trade Policy
Trade policy volatility remains one of the biggest contributors to supply chain risk in 2026:
- US tariff policy continues to evolve rapidly, with previously announced measures on China revised, delayed or suspended.
- New Section 301 proposals, Section 232 investigations and potential changes following Supreme Court rulings on IEEPA tariffs all carry implications for importers.
- If rulings trigger retroactive duty refunds, companies will need real-time access to accurate tariff, compliance and customs data.
Beyond the US, global trade patterns are shifting:
- India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme is attracting manufacturing investment from the EU, Japan and beyond.
- Southeast Asia’s expanding trade agreement network is prompting companies to reassess tariff optimisation and compliance strategies.
- The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is tightening, with full emissions monitoring and reporting requirements taking effect in 2026.
Together, these forces are reshaping sourcing decisions, cost structures and inventory strategies across global supply chains.
Climate and Environmental Risk
Environmental pressures are no longer a future consideration; they are an immediate driver of routing, modal choice and cost.
Shipping is responsible for more than 18% of global nitrogen oxide emissions and around 3% of greenhouse gas emissions. While it remains one of the most energy-efficient transport modes per unit, the sheer scale of global shipping activity overwhelms many efficiency gains.
Environmental risks influencing global supply chain risk include:
- Atmospheric pollution from high-sulphur fuels and diesel exhaust, particularly around ports.
- Ballast water discharge introducing invasive species and damaging marine ecosystems.
- Noise pollution disrupting marine life that relies on sound for survival.
- Wildlife collisions, increasingly recognised as an extinction-level threat for some species.
- Oil spills, both accidental and intentional, with devastating, often irreversible environmental impacts.
- Wastewater, solid waste and bilge water discharge posing long-term ecological and human health risks.
Decarbonisation targets, including the push toward net-zero shipping by around 2050, are accelerating regulatory intervention. As a result, sustainability is no longer just an ESG issue, it is a direct contributor to supply chain disruption risk and cost volatility.
Supply Chain Risk and Extreme Events
Academic research increasingly shows that supply chains are not just affected by external shocks, they actively transmit and amplify them.
Three major external risk drivers shape global supply chain risk:
- Energy prices, acting as a proxy for fuel and production costs
- Shipping costs, reflected in global freight listings
- Market uncertainty, driven by financial volatility
These drivers form a tightly connected network. During extreme events, such as pandemics, geopolitical crises or climate disasters, disruptions in one area rapidly spill over into others.
Crucially, the structure of risk itself changes during extreme events. Connections strengthen, shocks spread faster, and mitigation strategies that worked in stable periods may fail entirely.
This challenges traditional, static risk models that rely on historical averages or fixed probabilities. For supply chain planners, the implication is stark: supply chain risk cannot be assessed once and forgotten. It must be monitored dynamically, across energy markets, freight capacity and financial conditions.
Carbon Pricing and ETS
One of the most tangible regulatory shifts affecting freight planning in 2026 is the full implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System for maritime transport.
From 2026:
- 100% of CO₂ emissions from voyages between EU ports will be subject to carbon pricing.
- 50% of emissions from voyages starting or ending outside of the EU will be included.
- Methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) may be added from mid-year, significantly increasing compliance costs.
For carriers, this means:
- LNG-powered vessels face higher costs due to methane emissions.
- Traditional fuel users must account for nitrous oxide exposure.
- Carbon prices are expected to rise sharply as allowance supply tightens.
For shippers, this impact is immediate and measurable. Operating costs for an average bulk vessel trading within the EU could increase by over €1 million annually, with surcharges likely to risk beyond 2024-25 levels.
There are also operational implications:
- Increased administrative burden around monitoring, reporting and verification.
- Potential route and port optimisation to minimise ETS exposure, including greater use of non-EU hubs.
- Accelerated pressure to adopt lower-carbon fuels, despite infrastructure and cost barriers.
In this context, carbon pricing becomes a direct supply chain disruption risk if not actively managed.
Building Resilience for 2026 and Beyond
The common thread across geopolitics, climate, extreme events and regulation is clear: uncertainty is structural, not temporary.
To manage supply chain risk effectively in 2026, companies should focus on:
- True intermodal flexibility across ocean, air, rail and road.
- Diversified sourcing strategies, with growing footprints in Southeast Asia, India, Mexico and Canada.
- AI-driven risk forecasting and cost optimisation.
- Dynamic risk mapping and contingency planning for geopolitical, environmental and market shocks.
- Transparent collaboration with carriers on pricing, emissions and compliance costs.
The companies that succeed will not be those trying to predict the next disruption perfectly. They’ll be the ones that accept volatility as the new normal, and build supply chains designed to bend without breaking.